What is CMIE ?
Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy is an independent think-tank, founded in 1976, which specializes in collection and analysis of data related to multiple aspects of India Economy
How does CMIE get the data ?
CMIE estimate the size of the labor force in India and the unemployment rate in India by directly interviewing a large sample of randomly selected households, to find the employment/unemployment status of all members of over 15 years of age. The sample households are from the panel of households included in CMIE’s Consumer Pyramids survey. CMIE’s Consumer Pyramids panel of households contains over 174,405 households and these include over 522,000 members who are over 15 years old.CMIE covers the entire sample in four months, hence the monthly employment data comes from a sample of over 105,025 individuals from about 32,166 households.
Is CMIE data representative?
CMIE is quite reputed in research and business analytics circles. CMIE data can be quite useful in understanding the trend over time.
- The 2016-2018 CMIE data clearly shows that there is a decline in the labour force participation rate (LPR)
- This decline is consistent over time and is true for all states except Himachal Pradesh, West Bengal and Gujarat
- At all India level, there is a 4% point decline in LPR from around 47% in 2016 to 43% in 2018
- India’s LPR is lower than the global average LPR of 63% (China has an LPR of 71%)
- There is a loss of jobs in 2018 compared to 2017: the absolute number of jobs in 2018 is lower compared to 2017
- On a monthly average basis, there were 5 million fewer jobs in 2018 as compared to 2017
- A comparison of the last quarter of 2017 to last quarter of 2018, shows that there are 9 million fewer employed people on a monthly average basis in the last quarter of 2018
- From the line-graph: compared to July 2017, in December 2018 there is an increase of 36 million unemployed people while labour force increased by 30 million which implies about 6 million fewer net employed people!
What is Data Source ?
Data Source is Rajya Sabha and Lok Sabha Q & A s
- There are over 10 lakh vacancies for teachers
- Approximately 6 lakhs in various police services
- Railways have around 2.4 lakh vacancies
- Healthcare has around 1.3 lakh
- Defence forces need around 62 thousand more soldiers and officers
- Postal department has over 54 thousand vacancies
- The highest shortage of manpower against the sanctioned strength is in Judiciary at 25% followed by 17% in education
- Law and Order sector is understaffed by 17% and Healthcare is facing a shortage of 15%